A helpful critical thinking framework relevant for Noble Group, as well as many of the S-chips that include China Environment, the company that Terence, Roy, Shan Rui, Ronald, John have wrote and discussed about.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165410104000795
Journal of Accounting and Economics Volume 38, December 2004, Pages 297–331
Do investors overvalue firms with bloated balance sheets?
David Hirshleifer, Kewei Hou, Siew Hong Teoh, , Yinglei Zhang
Abstract
When cumulative net operating income (accounting value-added) outstrips cumulative free cash flow (cash value-added), subsequent earnings growth is weak. If investors with limited attention focus on accounting profitability, and neglect information about cash profitability, then net operating assets, the cumulative difference between operating income and free cash flow, measures the extent to which reporting outcomes provoke over-optimism. During the 1964–2002 sample period, net operating assets scaled by total assets is a strong negative predictor of long-run stock returns. Predictability is robust with respect to an extensive set of controls and testing methods. Continue reading