http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/04/09/2126069/spotting-lies-and-the-lying-liars-who-layer-them/

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/04/10/noble-group-muddy-waters-concerns-over-fair-value-gains-valid-says-ubs/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_astw

Spotting lies, and the lying liars who layer them

Dan McCrum

| Apr 09 13:11 | 10 comments | Share

Can you spot a lie? What about a half-truth, a sin of omission or the telling smirk of someone who thinks they got away with it? How about the grand lie, so big it has pillars and caverns of mis-truth, or the subtle wave of misdirection? Short sellers like to look for lies, in company accounts or in what management say. Find one, stick a red flag in it and go looking for more, on the basis if there’s one there’s several: lies multiply. There is also a small cottage industry in the art of deception, from books of facial expressions to help you play poker all the way to ex-CIA consultants offering interrogation advice.

For instance, the latest report from Muddy Waters on the commodity trading group Noble, which includes some “third party behavioural analysis” of management statements. Muddy Waters engaged Qverity to analyze management’s statements on the February 26th Q4 2014 results call for deception. (The call is the only time Noble management has spoken extemporaneously in public about the recent criticism.) Qverity provides behavioral analysis, and is founded and staffed by former United States Central Intelligence Agency experts in detecting deception. Its principals authored the books “Spy the Lie” and “Get the Truth”. Continue reading →